Preview: UFC Vegas 107 ‘Blanchfield vs. Barber’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday in Las Vegas shifts back to the UFC Apex after a Memorial Day break, and there are some intriguing matchups on the UFC on ESPN 68 main card. The headliner features top young women’s flyweights, as either Erin Blanchfield or Maycee Barber could wind up punching a ticket to a title shot with a victory. Meanwhile, the co-main event sees Ludovit Klein earn a long-overdue shot at the lightweight rankings against Mateusz Gamrot.

Now to the UFC on ESPN 68 “Blanchfield vs. Barber” preview:

Women’s Flyweights

Erin Blanchfield (13-2, 7-1 UFC) vs. Maycee Barber (14-2, 9-2 UFC)

ODDS: Blanchfield (-238), Barber (+195)

Barber makes her return from a year-plus layoff, as this main event sees two of the flyweight division’s young guns look to make a huge statement. Barber came to the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, and she talked a big game at the time. Just 20 years old, “The Future” repeatedly stated her goal of becoming the UFC’s youngest-ever champion. The promotion seemed ready to fast-track her, particularly after a strong 2019 campaign. That marked Barber’s move up to flyweight, and she looked like an absolute powerhouse in running over J.J. Aldrich and Gillian Robertson. Perhaps Barber would have gotten the push to a title with a win over Roxanne Modafferi in 2020, but the matchup turned into an absolute disaster. Modafferi’s veteran guile was starting to show the cracks in Barber’s approach even before she tore her ACL, leaving her out of action for over a year. Barber then dropped her return bout to Alexa Grasso, which was a bit of a worry, even if it did provide a clear example of her strengths and weaknesses going forward. She can be a bit passive early in her fights and it remains uncertain if her physical strength will show up in any wrestling or clinch exchanges. However, she has shown a knack for knowing when things need to be done and the fight needs to be won, as she nearly scored a comeback win with an aggressive third round against Grasso after a middling 10 minutes. Barber still hasn’t truly turned the corner as a finisher, as her second-round technical knockout of Amanda Ribas is the only stoppage during her current six-fight winning streak. Still, she has proven to be sturdy and powerful. While she isn’t always the type of dominating physical force in the clinch that one would expect, she’s typically at least capable of making things a stalemate; and few flyweights can match her in terms of pure horsepower if things wind up going down a shot-for-shot path. After her March 2024 win over Katlyn Cerminara, Barber seemed ready for a shot at the flyweight elite before some major health issues took her out of action for the rest of the year. Hopefully recovered, she finally gets her big fight against Blanchfield.

Given all the talk of Barber’s prodigy status, it’s a bit amusing that Blanchfield winds up being both the younger and more proven fighter here. Signed just shy of her 22nd birthday in 2021, Blanchfield had a considerable amount of hype but didn’t seem like a sure thing as a prospect. Her pre-UFC fights showed some impressive flashes, but nothing guaranteed to show up as a fight-winning approach at the UFC level. As it turned out, things clicked for “Cold Blooded” in the 14 months between her last regional fight and her UFC debut. She filled out physically and, more importantly, developed a dogged and pressure-heavy approach that allowed her to dominate opponents as a wrestler and a grappler. While some of Blanchfield’s victories were completely one-sided affairs, there were some worries during her rise through the ranks that she might hit a physical ceiling. She struggled to overwhelm Aldrich before finding a fight-ending submission, and her victory over powerhouse Taila Santos was an ugly grind that Blanchfield won through sheer persistence. That all came to a head in a March 2024 main event against Manon Fiorot, who was physical enough to keep the fight standing and skilled enough to make Blanchfield pay in return. It resulted in the New Jersey native continuing to try making things work, only to keep running into a proverbial wall. Blanchfield did rebound with a win over Rose Namajunas, which was a mixed bag of sorts. Blanchfield proved herself to be a five-round fighter down the stretch, leaning on her wrestling to handle the back half of the fight, but it took her surprisingly long to get there, as she struggled to get things going while feeling out the much longer and faster Namajunas. It’s unclear how that will all work against Barber. Blanchfield seems unlikely to get scared off by her power, and Barber can be physically neutralized a bit more than expected. Add in that Blanchfield can put in 25 minutes of hard work, and it’s easy to see her wearing down Barber over the course of five rounds after overcoming an ugly start. Still, that physical wall does exist, and even if Blanchfield can do some strong wrestling work for the balance of this fight, she just doesn’t have the second gear of offense that Barber possesses. Provided she looks in fine form after her recent health issues, Barber has the ability—and the mental fortitude—to recognize when to throw down and land a lot of hard offense. There are a lot of potential pitfalls, whether it’s thanks to rust, illness or simply not having five rounds of cardio, but the call is that Barber can make her offense count enough to win at least three rounds, even if it’s not a dominating performance. The pick is Barber via decision.

Jump To »
Blanchfield vs. Barber
Gamrot vs. Klein
Goff vs. Brahimaj
Jacoby vs. Lopes
Reese vs. Todorovic
The Prelims