Preview: UFC Abu Dhabi Prelims

Welterweights

Muslim Salikhov (21-5, 8-4 UFC) vs. Carlos Leal (22-6, 1-1 UFC)

Odds: Leal (-400); Salikhov (+320)

This should be a fun one. Salikhov has remained competitive in his 40s, something only he and Stephen Thompson can claim in recent welterweight history, and much like Thompson, that is impressive considering how much his fight style depends on speed, timing and reflexes. If anything, Salikhov’s continued relevance is even more surprising; where the tall, lanky Thompson sets up far on the outside, then bounces into range for long, straight jabs and side kicks, Salikhov is a compact whirling dervish of wushu, uncorking devastating spin kicks.

That style has remained surprisingly effective for the “King of Kung Fu,” whose six career wins via spinning back kick include two after his 38th birthday. Salikhov’s arsenal of spinning stuff is shored up by effective combination punching and decent wrestling both offensively and defensively. His durability has begun to wane in recent years, as seen in losses to Nicolas Salby and Jingliang Li, and he had no answer for Randy Brown’s huge edges in speed and reach, but despite those losses he has remained a solid welterweight, whether he is called upon to provide fireworks against a fellow veteran or test an up-and-comer.

At 31 and with nearly 30 pro fights to his name but only the last two in the Octagon, Leal falls somewhere in the middle of those two categories. To get it out of the way immediately, “The Lion” should be 2-0 in the UFC rather than 1-1, as his decision loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov in his promotional debut last October was the worst robbery of the year in top-level MMA. Leal bounced back with a first-round beatdown of Alex Morono at UFC 313 in March, and with the Salikhov matchup, it appears the UFC is booking him more or less as if he were 2-0.

Like Salikhov, Leal is a striker by preference, but the similarities end there. An orthodox muay thai practitioner, he comes forward with a nice straight jab and right cross, punctuated with hard kicks to the legs and body. He transitions seamlessly to the clinch, where he continues to work the body with knees and short punches. Through two UFC bouts and his seven-fight run in Professional Fighters League, his takedown defense has been more than adequate; his pair of losses to Sadibou Sy in the PFL came not from being grounded, but getting drawn into a striking battle at Sy’s preferred range and pace.

Leal is a big favorite in this matchup, and while he should rightly be favored, there is every chance that this fight will look very evenly matched. Watch for a lot of awkward exchanges, especially early on, as these two try and figure one another out, and brace for three difficult-to-score rounds. This one has split decision written all over it. I made the case for the upset on the preview podcast. That was partly on principle, as this fight has a good chance of looking like a pick ‘em in the cage despite one fighter being -400, but it is also worth remembering that Leal’s awful robbery against Fakhretdinov took place in Abu Dhabi, with one regional judge and two of the UFC’s usual travel pool. The real call here is “don’t go anywhere near this fight if you’re a bettor,” but the prediction is Leal by decision.



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