Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 105 ‘Emmett vs. Murphy’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship puts on its 105th hash-tagged Vegas event, even though it is not actually event No. 105 in Sin City, nor the 105th time the promotion has holed up in the UFC Apex. The naming convention for social media makes as much sense as several of the lines on the billing, from the main event all the way down to the early prelims. Prime Picks seeks openings and ways to cash in on off-kilter analysis, and the four options on display for UFC on ESPN 65 should provide just that.

Josh Emmett (+255)

Betting confidence is at an all-time high for unbeaten Brit Lerone Murphy, who slides into this headliner as a favorite over -300. His last two performances earned that odds disparity in his favor, with most of the enthusiasm resulting from his pillar-to-post performance against Edson Barboza. Dan Ige set him down and dueled him to a close decision in which a couple of dissenting scorecards saw the match in his favor, but what was more conclusive after the bout was that the Hawaiian kept it tight. Ige’s punching power caught Murphy off-guard, and that’s something Emmett does in spades. Perhaps because no one has seen him lose, they are unable to imagine a situation where he falls. However, the 40-year-old Emmett, coming off of one of the most definitive victories of his career, is hardly someone to take for granted.

As mentioned, this main attraction will play out at the UFC Apex, a building famous for using a small cage. This by itself favors a striker who likes to crowd his adversaries, cutting off the cage and otherwise chasing a counterpuncher around the Octagon. On paper, Murphy has a number of advantages. He is taller with a longer reach—both three inches in his favor—while also being several years younger. Not only does he land at a higher clip than the man staring across from him, but he’s significantly less hittable than Emmett. He can hit a takedown when he needs to, and he’s not afraid to attempt a submission at least to keep the other man honest. All that falls to the wayside when equalizing power comes to the table. One concussive overhand right can change the game entirely, not just by a knockout blow but by planting the seed of doubt in the mind of “The Iceman.” Having a frame of a 145-pounder with the lethal single-strike prowess of Dan Henderson—during either his Pride Bushido or Strikeforce days, and not the “Decision Dan” era—makes Emmett a threat until the final bell or until you put him away. Murphy will not likely become the second man to stop the durable Californian with strikes, but Emmett could claim his opponent’s zero with his own cruise missiles.

Joanderson Brito Wins Inside Distance (-110)

For all the talk about the aforementioned Emmett being a lights-out knockout artist, the real fastball thrower on the main card is Brazil’s Brito. The 30-year-old from Santa Helena, Maranhao, only seems to know one speed for his pitches. A change-up or breaking ball will not likely come out of the “Tubarao” arsenal, as he wants to strike out his foe as fast as he possibly can. Brito comes out of his corner like he was shot out of a pitching machine, and few in the promotion have been able to stave it off. When they do, they take him into deep waters and get past the worst of his offense. Otherwise, they get finished, which is what Pat Sabatini has to deal with for as long as this matchup goes.

A submission specialist, Sabatini has a clear path to victory, namely shrugging off the frantic assault of his opponent to slow things down into a more deliberately paced grappling match. Once things hit the floor, Sabatini changes from an odds-on underdog to something closer than even money, as he can snatch up a heel hook or sneakily transition to take a back or side in the blink of an eye. Brito relies on explosive movement and activity, and a pure technician may be able to turn the kabooms into dull roars. With fairly recent stoppage losses due to strikes, however, Sabatini is quite susceptible to getting blitzed, and blitz is Brito’s middle name. Unless the Philadelphia-based grappler catches Brito in a transition or otherwise forces “Tubarao” to play jiu-jitsu for long stretches of the match, he should be able to rampage his way back in the win column.

Gerald Meerschaert (+180)

Another matchup, another man favored over the dangerous Meerschaert. The book is well-written about “GM3.” Survive his traps and punch him squarely in the face, and you might be in good hands. Normally, our play would specifically be the Wisconsin native winning inside the distance, but he has not ended a fight with strikes since 2017 and his opponent, Brad Tavares, has never been submitted. Still, Meerschaert should have enough in the tank to threaten the similarly aged—they were born three days apart—and grizzled Tavares with enough on the mat to sway judges in his favor. Whether he has to force the Hawaiian to constantly fight off takedown attempts or even pull guard to make sure things hit the canvas, Meerschaert should keep his head off the center line long enough not to get caught.

Despite the litany of foes Tavares has encountered over the years, it is perhaps miraculous no one has forced the perennial middleweight contender to surrender thus far. His beard cannot say the same, but heavier-handed opponents have tried and come up short. The risk of this play is simple: Tavares, who celebrates a stalwart takedown defense rate of 80% even with all the tough talent staring across the cage from him, shuts down Meerschaert’s advances and grappling efforts to force a boxing match. Even though “GM3” measures longer in the arms and presents as a southpaw, he should not offer anything on the feet Tavares has not already experienced and/or overcome. Given that the Xtreme Couture product does not pack the same wallop he once did, “GM3” can tank any sustained damage and implement his own game to stage the upset.

Diana Belbita (+625)

The breakdown of this flyweight contest is simple: Dione Barbosa should not be a -1000 favorite against any fighter on the roster. With just one win on her UFC ledger, a close decision over Ernesta Karackaite, she has hardly established herself as an elite talent or even one to watch in the logjammed weight category. Being a 10-fight veteran at the age of 32 does not bode well for a division where, in three years, she will be firmly outside of her physical prime and more likely primed for retirement. In comparison, Kayla Harrison, the presumptive future UFC bantamweight champion, opened with a line of -500, or half that of Barbosa against Belbita. The expectations are that Harrison will run through Julianna Pena, providing her weight cut does not prove to her detriment, and yet confidence is generally much higher in Harrison getting her hand raised than Barbosa winning this weekend.

To her credit, Belbita has survived in the promotion by the skin of her teeth and potentially kept her roster slot due to her marketability. She does have 420,000 followers on Instagram alone, plus her own separate address for fan mail. It came as a surprise to some that the Romanian, having dropped three of four, was able to take over one year off and come back to get another shot in the Octagon. Her two victories in the promotion came against women that are no longer on the roster, while the pair of defeats to Molly McCann have aged like fine milk. When things go right for “Warrior Princess,” she’s a high-volume, low-power kickboxer who’s not afraid to get into an exchange of eating two to throw three back. When the fight goes horizontal, Belbita is at a disadvantage, but thankfully for her, Barbosa is not particularly adept at getting it there for long. She will hunt for submissions at her own expense, so Belbita will have to watch out for a sudden armbar should Barbosa get sick of failing on body locks and result to a guard pull. It may not be of the utmost confidence for the underdog, as bettors do not expect her to prevail, but this moneyline appears a bit shaky.